Winnie the Pooh's Dilemma: The Reality of No Escape

Path Dependence of the System

The outside world likes to portray the bargain-bin Winnie as a dictator, as if everything were determined by his will. Zoom in and you will see that he is merely the product of the system and public opinion. Winnie’s dilemma is not only his problem; it is the dilemma of 1.4 billion people.

The buy-off period after the Cold War has ended. The West is no longer willing to provide markets and technology, and China’s population and economy are collapsing. Any leader in such an environment will tighten control, lean on nationalism, and strengthen repression. That is not a personal preference—it is the direction the system inevitably takes.

From his perspective he is “maintaining unity.” The logic is simple: the weaker the people, the less strength they have to dismantle the regime. Even if everyone becomes poorer, as long as they remain weak enough, the machine can drag itself to the next cycle. This kind of unity is not constructed; it is bound together by decline and exhaustion.

But are the 1.4 billion really innocent? Decades of education and propaganda have taught them to treat hatred as routine. They enjoyed the technology and capital brought by the US, Japan, and the rest of the free world during reform and opening, yet in their hearts they view those countries as enemies. They shout about national revival, reject democracy and freedom, and treat universal values as conspiracies. Did Winnie really betray them—or is he simply carrying out their own choice?

It is a mutual selection. Winnie did not force-feed nationalism; he seized the desire people already had and pushed it to extremes. The closure and confrontation he promotes are projections of social attitudes. The public curses the outside world while complaining about their own miserable lives. Winnie can easily ask: isn’t this what you wanted? Now that the outcome is here, on what grounds do you blame only me?

In the end, Winnie’s dilemma is not the fate of a single man but of an entire system. The regime and the people bind each other; the leader uses nationalism to maintain power, and the people use nationalism to search for meaning. Everyone feels like a victim, yet everyone participates in the trap.

This is not a free choice. It is path dependence.