The Failure of the New Axis: 2022.2.26

Introduction

On February 26, 2022, the third day after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, important changes occurred in the international relations landscape. This event not only changed the European security order, but also redefined the international balance of power. By analyzing the international reactions at this time point and subsequent developments, we can better understand the complexity of contemporary international relations.

Part One: Changes in the International Relations Landscape

International Environment Before the War

Multipolarization Trends:

• Rise of emerging country groups
• Relative decline of traditional great powers' influence
• International order facing adjustment
• Changes in balance of power

Alliance Relations:

• Traditional alliance relationships
• Emerging cooperation mechanisms
• Strategic partnership relations
• Differentiation of interest groups

Economic Globalization:

• Economic interdependence
• Globalized supply chains
• Interconnected financial systems
• Complex trade relations

International Reactions After the War

Western Countries:

• Unified political stance
• Economic sanction measures
• Military aid support
• Diplomatic isolation policy

Emerging Countries:

• Obvious position differentiation
• Different interest considerations
• Diverse policy choices
• Limited international influence

International Organizations:

• Limited role of the United Nations
• Differentiation of regional organizations
• Failure of multilateral mechanisms
• Insufficient international law constraints

Part Two: Reassessment of Balance of Power

Reality Test of Military Capabilities

Technology Gaps:

• Information warfare capabilities
• Precision guidance technology
• Cyber warfare capabilities
• Space military technology

Equipment Level:

• Modernization of weapons and equipment
• Logistics support capabilities
• Command and control systems
• Personnel training level

Combat Performance:

• Battlefield adaptability
• Tactical application level
• Strategic planning capability
• War endurance capacity

Impact of Economic Strength

Effect of Economic Sanctions:

• Vulnerability of financial systems
• Degree of energy dependence
• Technology dependence relationships
• Degree of market openness

Economic Resilience:

• Industrial structure adjustment
• Supply chain reconstruction
• Independent technological innovation
• Market diversification

Long-term Impact:

• Economic development model
• International division of labor status
• Globalization participation
• Economic security considerations

Part Three: Evolution of International Order

Challenges to Multilateral Mechanisms

UN System:

• Limited Security Council functions
• Intensified great power games
• Difficult resolution implementation
• Increased calls for reform

Regional Organizations:

• Functional positioning adjustment
• Member state differentiation
• Changes in cooperation mechanisms
• Redistribution of influence

International Law System:

• Difficult rule enforcement
• Great power exceptionalism
• Double standard issues
• Lack of international justice

Embryo of New Order

Grouping Trends:

• Value-based alliances
• Economic interest groups
• Security cooperation mechanisms
• Technology standard alliances

Competition and Cooperation:

• Intensified strategic competition
• Existence of partial cooperation
• Obvious interest conflicts
• Retention of dialogue mechanisms

Governance Models:

• Weakening of multilateralism
• Rise of mini-multilateralism
• Importance of bilateral relations
• Strengthening of regional cooperation

Part Four: Reassessment of Strategic Choices

Strategic Choices of Different Countries

Western Countries:

• Value-based diplomacy
• Alliance politics
• Economic sanctions
• Military deterrence

Emerging Powers:

• Strategic autonomy
• Multilateral diplomacy
• Economic cooperation
• Avoiding taking sides

Small and Medium Countries:

• Balanced diplomacy
• Interest maximization
• Risk avoidance
• Flexible response

Changes in Strategic Environment

Security Threats:

• Traditional security threats
• Non-traditional security challenges
• Hybrid warfare threats
• Technology security risks

Economic Environment:

• Globalization backlash
• Supply chain reconstruction
• Technology decoupling risks
• Financial system changes

Political Environment:

• Ideological opposition
• Value conflicts
• Governance model competition
• Competition for international discourse power

Part Five: Reflection on Historical Experience

Insights from Historical Cases

Cold War Experience:

• Ideological opposition
• Military bloc confrontation
• Separation of economic systems
• Intense technological competition

Post-Cold War Period:

• Brief unipolar world
• Multipolar development
• Deepening globalization
• Coexistence of cooperation and competition

Contemporary Characteristics:

• Intensified technological competition
• Economic interdependence
• Diversified security threats
• Complex governance mechanisms

Summary of Lessons Learned

Strategic Misjudgments:

• Deviation in strength assessment
• Misjudgment of opponent reactions
• Wrong timing choices
• Insufficient consideration of consequences

Institutional Defects:

• Insufficient international governance
• Failure of multilateral mechanisms
• Lack of great power responsibility
• Neglect of small country interests

Cognitive Biases:

• Ideological prejudice
• Nationalist sentiment
• Limitations of historical experience
• Influence of cultural differences

Part Six: Thoughts on Future Development

Development Trends of International Relations

Deepening Multipolarization:

• Changes in balance of power
• Rise of emerging countries
• Adjustment of traditional great powers
• Reconstruction of international order

Technological Competition:

• Artificial intelligence competition
• Quantum technology development
• Space technology race
• Biotechnology competition

Governance Challenges:

• Global issues
• Transnational threats
• Governance mechanism reform
• Need for international cooperation

Thoughts on Response Strategies

Great Power Responsibility:

• Maintaining international peace
• Promoting common development
• Addressing global challenges
• Promoting international cooperation

Multilateral Cooperation:

• Reforming international institutions
• Improving governance mechanisms
• Strengthening dialogue and consultation
• Promoting common development

Regional Cooperation:

• Deepening regional integration
• Strengthening economic cooperation
• Maintaining regional stability
• Promoting common prosperity

Conclusion

The events of February 26, 2022, marked the entry of international relations into a new stage. This event not only exposed deep-seated problems in the international order, but also provided important cases for understanding the complexity of contemporary international relations.

The development of international relations requires joint efforts from all countries to resolve differences and address challenges through dialogue, consultation, and win-win cooperation. Only through rational analysis and objective assessment can we better understand the complex and changing international environment and contribute to building a more peaceful, stable, and prosperous world order.

Historical experience shows that any attempt to change the international order through force is difficult to succeed. True international order transformation must be achieved through peaceful, cooperative, and win-win means.